35% strike-rate seals September crown for Probets

2023-09-30

The prospect of Probets claiming a first Besttipping Challenge was given a huge boost in September: a 9.5 -point return, combined with a losing month for Daily Bargain and the two Personal Info services, increased Probets overall lead in the 2023 race to more than 67 points.

So far this year, Probets has finished in credit eight times and has claimed six monthly crowns. The overall profit for the year currently stands at 74.2 points.

There will be some relief that Probets got through September unscathed. Last year, entering the month with a similarly commanding lead, Probets self-combusted. A 17-point loss and a 15.5-point profit for Daily Bargain irreversibly changed the dynamic of the year.

And there were early indications that a repeat might be on the cards: after two days action, Daily Bargain had reduced the deficit by more than 15 points, thanks to 15/2 and 6/1 winners. But, Probets recovered in brilliant style. Unlimited (13/8, Kempton Park, 6 September) began an impressive sequence that yielded a further five winners from seven including Eldar Eldarov (100/30, Curragh, 10 September), Wasdell Dundalk (9/2, Perth, 11 September), Judicial Law (100/30, Kelso, 12 September) and Sandrine (4/1, Doncaster, 16 September). Billy No Mates (5/2, Haydock Park, 29 September) made it eight winning selections from 23 for a 35% strike-rate.

Daily Bargain’s sensational start to September was secured by Persuasion (15/2, Thirsk, 1 September) and Aimeric (6/1, Beverely, 2 September). This was followed by a ghastly losing run of 18, by the end of which, those early profits were distant memories. Humanity, an 11/2 winner at Kempton Park (27 September), offered some hope, but losers on the final three days pushed the reigning champion back into the losing zone. Given that 18-day barren spell, however, a loss of 2-points (12.5% strike-rate) was just about bearable. It does, though, leave Daily Bargain almost 70-points adrift of Probets and hopes of a seventh title now look slender, to say the least.

September was a quiet month for Personal Info’s two services, Mainline and Saturday-Only. Losses on the opening Saturday were ameliorated by the success of Starlust (2/1, Kempton Park, 9 September), but Really Darn Hot’s failure to finish in the first two at Lingfield the following Saturday pushed Mainline and Saturday-Only into the red. A 1.8 -point loss was only the second such reversal for the Mainline service in 2023. Both Mainline and Saturday-Only remain nicely ahead for the year.

Although the days are getting shorter, the Flat season still has plenty of life with Champions Day and the second leg of the autumn double to grapple with. Meanwhile, the jumping season is gaining momentum and the code’s stars will soon be emerge from their summer sabbaticals. From a punting perspective, October can be a bit messy and formlines can often go crazy. There is bound to be some big priced winners over the next few weeks so be prepared…