The secret to successful punting? Follow Besttipping in November
2018-10-31
As another year nears completion, I was keen to see if any patterns have emerged regarding the challenges facing tipsters at different times of year. There is a general assumption that winners are easier to find during the core phase of the two seasons. That is, for the Flat, May to September, and for the jumpers, December to March. So, heaven help us in April, September, October and November. Naturally, we expect the professionals to be able to steer a safe course during testing times, although some are remarkably candid about the difficulties of early- and late-season formlines.
Using the points totals for the leading Besttipping tipster each month since the start of 2013, I was able to work out a somewhat crude indication of the months in which the profits flow and those that are barren. The most intriguing finding, and one that is particularly relevant is that November is the month with the best average winning tally – 95.2 points. That’s thanks entirely to Mark Your Card who posted bumper returns of 184 and 213 in 2014 and ’15.
August, with an average yield of 76.33 points, October and May (both 73.00 points) are also productive months, but, at the other end of the table, February (34.17 points) and June (33.33 points) give the tipsters most headaches. Having said that, a 30-odd point return is no real hardship, as hard-pressed punters would agree.
As February and June are slap-bang in the middle of the two core seasons, it brings into question the validity of the early/late season theory: more research is needed before it can be completely dismissed, but it’s food for thought, nonetheless.
Talking of the irrepressible Mark Your Card, they continued to hammer the bookies in October. A posting of 25.6 points secured a fourth monthly title out of five since June, and extended their lead at the top of the overall table to almost 130 points. The two Steve Jones’ services, Daily Bargain and Probets, took second and third places, while Personal Info made it nine months of profit out of ten for 2018.
After a sticky start, the winners started to flood in for Mark Your Card: Bodacious Name (14/1, Pontefract, 8 October), Consequences (16/1, Newcastle, 9 October), Just Hiss (11/1, York, 12 October) and Blaze Of Dawn (10/1, Brighton, 18 October) set the tills ringing, and the month ended brightly, thanks to Flowing Clarets (12/1, Windsor, 22 October) and Ocelot (14/1, Nottingham, 31 October)
Mark Your Card have made 228.80 points profit this year, and a fourth Besttipping Challenge beckons. Daily Bargain, who interrupted Mark Your Card’s domination last year, are in second position with 98.50 points, thanks to a 10-point October yield. This, an eighth month of profit for 2018, was built around two 8/1 winners and the Redcar success of 12/1 Billy Ray (29 October).
Steve Jones’ second service, Probets, also enjoyed a good October harvest, with eight winners (36% strike-rate) bring home a 6.6-point profit. Winners included the 9/2 advice War Department (Newcastle, 3 October).
Probets are fifth in the 2018 table with 43.10 points behind Mark Your Card, Daily Bargain, Sprint Specialiser (63.20 points) and Sandbets (48.80 points).
Personal Info’s ninth month of profit was secured with a nine-win haul which included 3/1 Morney Wing (Fontwell, 24 October). Once again, the dutching bets were immensely successful last month with four out of five generating a profit.
Three October winners helped Personal Info’s Saturday-Only service to an eighth month of profit for 2018, while First Favourite were denied an October profit by the nose that denied Kublai victory at Uttoxeter on 18 October.