Probets toil as Daily Bargain revival gathers pace

2022-09-30

The Daily Bargain revival, which began in August, continued unabated throughout September. A 15.5-point haul, combined with a dramatic 17-point loss by current pacesetter Probets, has brought the 2022 Besttipping Challenge back to life.

The volatile nature of events last month was demonstrated by Personal Info’s reluctance to enter into the fray. But keeping the powder dry was an effective response and when a PI selection did eventually arrive, Spirit Of Applause (evens, Ripon, 24 August) both Mainline and Saturday Only were able to celebrate a winner. This secured an eighth winning month from nine in 2022 for Saturday-Only, and pushes the return for 2022 to 6.1 points.

At the start of August, the difference between Probets and Daily Bargain, the two Steve Jones services, was a mighty 112 points. Come September, the margin had shrunk to 79 points. Now it’s down to 47 points and the momentum is definitely with Daily Bargain. This after a disastrous opening to 2022, with six losing months out of seven, which made Daily Bargain’s chances of adding to five previous titles appear unlikely.

Probets, who had spent so much time in Daily Bargain’s shadow, emerged as the service to follow, bashing out seven successive top spots, and, in all, eight winning months on the run. That all came to a shuddering halt in September, with just two correct calls from 23. Between the wins of Going Mobile (7/4, Hexham, 6 September) and Soul Icon (9/4, Fontwell, 30 September) Probets supporters suffered an ice-age of 20 losing selections.

Daily Bargain’s winning sequence began with Bounce The Blues, successful at 15/2 at Doncaster on 7 September. This was followed by Perseus Way (11/1, Newbury, 16 September), Busselton (10/1, Listowel, 21 September) and Fourth Time Lucky (7/1, Hamilton Park, 26 September).  A 17% strike-rate was a little lower than August’s 19%, but compare it to the figures for January through to July: 7%, 5%, 13%, 10%, 7%, 8% and 6%. Given Daily Bargain’s value-based strategy, a strike-rate in double figures can yield a profit; anything above 15% will secure a handsome return, as the last two months have demonstrated.

Probets, however, advise shorter-priced selections, which means a strike-rate of 20% will often fail to turn a profit. Even a strike-rate in the high-twenties may only translate to a modest gain, as was demonstrated in May, when a 28% figure earned just a 4-point return.

For long-term success, Probets regularly needs to hit a one in three win-to-run ratio. That was the case in the first seven months of 2022 when, on four occasions, strike-rates between 31 and 39% returned double-digit profits.

A return to that kind of form is entirely possible, and given the current distance between Probets and Daily Bargain, favouritism remains with Probets. But, to adapt a phrase often used in politics, it’s Probets race to lose.