Another winning month for rejuvenated Daily Bargain

2022-10-31

Thanks to a 23-point October profit, Daily Bargain continue to eat away at Probets’ lead in the 2022 Besttipping Challenge. A third successive monthly crown reduced the difference between the two Steve Jones’ services from more than 47 points at the start of October to just 20 by the month’s end.

Personal Info’s Mainline and Saturday-Only services registered small October profits, but Probets suffered a 3.8-point loss

For much of the month there was little to choose between Daily Bargain and Probets. Two winners in the opening four days for Probets was balanced by the 11/1 victory of Shandy Star (Pontefract, 3 October) for Daily Bargain. Both services then struggled until 19 October when Don’t Tell Claire triumphed at Newmarket for Daily Bargain at 16/1. Probets also found a winner that day – 4/1 Castleway again at Newmarket but from then on in it was Daily Bargain who made the headlines, winning with Canoodled (8/1, Newmarket, 28 October) and Belloccio (12/1, Kempton, 31 October). The month’s return on investment was an excellent 82%.

Ironically, Probets also hit form during the last week of the month, scoring with Music Society (9/2, Catterick, 25 October), Wayfinder (5/2, Chepstow, 26 October) and Queen Aminatu (4/1, Lingfield, 27 October). At that point the months losses had been wiped out, but the last four bets of the month were losers, hence the overall small loss.

On the face of it, the transformation in Daily Bargain’s record is remarkable, but given this services’ long-term record, it was just a matter of time before the tide turned. Six losing months out of seven between January and July, with a strike-rate of just 8.2%, produced an overall loss of more than 45 points. But the combined figures for the August to October period show a much-improved strike rate of 17.5% and a profit of 78 points.

Compare those figures with Probets, who were averaging a winner every three bets between January and July in the process of building up a 70-point yield. For the last three months, the overall strike-rate is down to 17.5%, with prices averaging out at 7/2. The accumulated loss is 18 points.

There’s still plenty of time for Probets to turn things around, and, entering November, a 20-point lead in the challenge is an enviable position to be in. Encouragingly, October’s strike-rate was 23%, a significant improvement on September’s lamentable 9%.

Personal Info’s cautious approach continued in October with Mainline and Saturday-Only both securing small profits from the same trio of bets. Dunnet Head, a 3/1 winner at Ayr (29 October) was the horse responsible for the 0.73-point yield – a return on investment of more than 20%.  For Saturday-Only, October was a ninth winning month out of ten, while Mainline’s record stands at eight out of ten.

The evidence of the last couple of months seems to suggest that services advising shorter-priced selections have had a tougher time of it of late than those prepared to speculate on bigger priced fancies. Little wonder then that Personal Info has stepped carefully through this minefield over the last eight or nine weeks, but the results during this period have justified this approach.

Now that the jumping season is in full swing, the form-lines are bound to settle down. It will be fascinating to see who capitalises on this.